Add 3 More States to the Declining Rates of New Cases

Based on the weekly rates of new cases, nine states are trending lower in average number of new cases per week. And if this continues, the pandemic will be over sooner rather than later, for them. All nine States had a smaller rate of new cases in each of the last 3 weeks. This doesn’t mean they won’t have more new cases. In fact, they will. And it may seem like a lot. But the trend has been in all nine of these states that there are fewer and fewer new cases. And that’s good news.

The method I used to evaluate the trends is the same method that Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt, a biophysicist for Stanford University, used to accurately predict the end of China’s infection.

In the table below, you’ll find the rate of new cases over the last 3 weeks. The data that I analyzed comes from the same data used by Johns Hopkins University to populate their Global dashboard of coronavirus cases and it’s cited by almost everyone. Johns Hopkins pulls in data from the World Health Organization and the CDC’s from around the world.

Most Recent 3 Weeks

Rates of New Cases Declined

  • Connecticut (newly added)
  • District of Columbia
  • Florida – (Since March 6, 2020)
  • Georgia – (Since March 6, 2020)
  • Illinois (newly added)
  • Kentucky (newly added)
  • Minnesota – (Since March 6, 2020)
  • Nebraska  – (Since March 6, 2020)
  • New Jersey (newly added)
  • North Carolina – (Since March 6, 2020)
  • South Carolina (newly added)
  • Tennessee – (Since March 6, 2020)
  • Utah (newly added)
  • Washington – (Since March 6, 2020)
  • Wisconsin (newly added)

Lost Their 3 Week Decline Rate

  • Colorado – rates of new cases increased this week
  • Nevada – rates of new cases declined this week but went up last week when full 3 weeks of data was added.

 

  • States with an increasing trend
    • Arizona – rate of new cases declined this week.
    • Rhode Island – rates of new cases increased this week but they had a decline in cases from week 1 to week 2

 

  • States with inconsistent data (no pattern)
    • California – down in week 2 then up in week 3  SAME
    • Illinois – up in week 2 then down in week 3 –
    • Indiana – down in week 2 then up in week 3
    • Kentucky – down in week 2 then up in week 3
    • Maryland – up in week 2 then down in week 3
    • New Hampshire – up in week 2 and down in week 3
    • New Jersey – up in week 2 then down in week 3
    • New York – up in week 2 then down in week 3
    • Oregon – down in week 2 then up in week 3
    • Pennsylvania – down in week 2 then up in week 3
    • Texas – up in week 2 then down in week 3
    • Wisconsin – up in week 2 then down in week 3

Some of the reasons for inconsistent data may have to to with testing introduction and expansion. It could also be related to the implementation of curfews and lock downs. Or there may be other reasons. For example, on March 16, Pennsylvania ordered all business closed which would explain the reduction in cases. And this week, it significantly expanded testing, which would cause more cases to be reported. The data isn’t perfect, but hopefully it provides a sense of where we are right now.

To use the table, type your full State name in the Search box or use the arrows at the bottom.

Rates of New Coronavirus Cases: United States

StateRate of New Cases March 6 - 12Rate of New Cases
March 13 - 19
Rate of New Cases
March 20 - 27
Direction of Infection
Alabama1st Case 3/150.4810.110Decreasing but not a trend
Alaska
1st Case 3/150.3690.252Decreasing but not a trend
Arizona
0.1700.2580.358Increasing
Arkansas
1st Case 3/110.3960.218Decreasing but not a trend
California
0.2080.190
0.217Increasing
Colorado
0.4130.281
0.217Decreasing
Connecticut
1st Case 3/70.4650.311Decreasing but not a trend
Delaware
1st Case 3/110.334
0.231Decreasing but not a trend
District of Columbia
1st Case 3/80.2190.211Decreasing but not a trend
Florida
0.363
0.3540.264Decreasing
Georgia
0.396
0.3160.250Decreasing
Hawaii
1st Case 3/70.3460.222Decreasing but not a trend
Idaho
1st Case 3/13
0.4090.367Decreasing but not a trend
Illinois
0.304
0.3720.264Decreasing but not a trend
Indiana0.443
0.2440.415Increasing but not a trend
Iowa1st Case 3/9
0.1460.266Increasing but not a trend
Kansas
1st Case 3/8
0.3150.247Decreasing but not a trend
Kentucky
0.389
0.1490.304Increasing but not a trend
Louisiana
1st Case 3/9
0.4070.207Decreasing but not a trend
Maine
1st Case 3/13
0.7590.170Decreasing but not a trend
Maryland0.219
0.2900.266Decreasing but not a trend
Massachusetts
1st Case 3/70.1500.342Increasing but not a trend
Michigan
1st Case 3/11
0.5440.309Decreasing but not a trend
Minnesota
0.369
0.3020.193Decreasing
Mississippi
1st Case 3/12
0.7490.327Decreasing but not a trend
Missouri

1st Case 3/8
0.4790.436Decreasing but not a trend
Montana
1st Case 3/11
0.4090.328Decreasing but not a trend
Nebraska
0.389
0.1210.120Decreasing
Nevada
0.3200.2790.247Decreasing
New Hampshire
0.1700.3290.200Decreasing but not a trend
New Jersey
0.4650.5890.388Decreasing but not a trend
New Mexico
1st Case 3/110.1960.179Decreasing but not a trend
New York0.3710.3270.264Decreasing
North Carolina
0.3340.3270.264Decreasing
North Dakota
1st Case 3/120.5110.200Decreasing but not a trend
Ohio
1st Case 3/100.3720.309Decreasing but not a trend
Oklahoma
1st Case 3/70.5550.309Decreasing but not a trend
Oregon
0.3460.1660.203Increasing but not a trend
Pennsylvania
0.4090.2590.340Increasing but not a trend
Rhode Island
0.1400.1780.208Increasing
South Carolina
1st Case 3/70.2990.232Decreasing but not a trend
South Dakota
1st Case 3/110.0470.225Increasing but not a trend
Tennessee
0.5110.2890.281Decreasing
Texas
0.2720.2930.255Decreasing
Vermont
1st Case 3/80.4090.302Decreasing but not a trend
Virginia
1st Case 3/80.1860.258Increasing but not a trend
Washington
0.2700.1350.125Decreasing
West Virginia
No Cases
1st Case 3/170.406Not enough data
Wisconsin
0.3460.3550.239Decreasing but not a trend
Wyoming
1st Case 3/120.5110.205Decreasing but not a trend

I mentioned yesterday that the number of reported cases vastly under-represents the true number of cases. In that article I published a Table of True Cases in each state. I used the calculation methods of Thomas Pueyo, a Stanford University graduate with two master’s degrees. He has written extensively on the coronovirus and here’s an article you should read. It’s a lot of information but worth the time. More to come…