We’re not stupid, are we? I mean, it’s not a secret that we’ve been slow to test people for the coronavirus. And everyone knows by now that you can’t get tested unless they think you do have it. So, if you think the number cases being reported is the actual number of cases out there, you better read this. The number of cases that we see on the CDC website and hear about on the news, isn’t the number of people that have the virus. Not by a long shot. In fact, you’ll be shocked to learn how far off it is.

You probably already know that a person can have the virus for weeks before getting symptoms. That means it gets spread to other people before someone even knows they have it. Before they seek treatment and before they get tested. In other words, the number of confirmed cases that are being reported can’t be accurate.

So how do we really know how many cases are out there? Fortunately, a Stanford scientist, Thomas Pueyo, MSc., MBA, created a statistical model that can calculate the number of true cases based on the number of new deaths on a particular day. With that said, the calculation only works if there were new deaths. So, if your State didn’t have any deaths today, well, that’s great news! Check back when you do.

So, here it is. A Table of estimated True Cases based on the number of new deaths reported on March 27, 2020. Just type the name of your State into the search box (or use the “back” and “next” buttons at the bottom) and you’ll see the number of true cases in your State. Cover your eyes and peek through your fingers when you compare that number to the number being reported. You might want to be sitting down.

True Cases (Based on Number of Deaths

StateNew DeathsTotal Reported CasesTrue Cases Based on Number of Deaths
New York153
44,810110,077
Louisiana
36
2,74628,716
Michigan
32
3,65725,525
Washington
28
3,70022,335
New Jersey
27
8,82521,537
California
114,671
8,774
Massachusetts
10
3,2407,977
Georgia
8
2,0016,381
Illinois
83,0266,381
Colorado
71,734
5,584
Indiana7
9815,584
Connecticut
61,2914,786
Pennsylvania
62,2184,786
Texas
6
1,8814,786
Arizona
56653,988
Florida
5
2,9003,988
Ohio
4
1,1373,191
South Carolina
4539
3,191
Wisconsin
4
8423,191
Mississippi
35792,393
Tennessee
3
1,2032,393
Alabama25871,595
Iowa2
2351,595
Minnesota
23981,595
Alaska
169798
Arkansas
1381
798
Delaware
1165
798
Kansas
1202798
Maryland1
774798
Missouri

1
670798
Montana
1
108798
North Dakota
168798
Oklahoma
1
322798
Puerto Rico179798
Vermont
1
184798
Virginia
1
604798
West Virginia
1
76798
District of Columbia
0
267NA
Hawaii
0120NA
Idaho
0189NA
Kentucky
0
302NA
Maine
0
168NA
Nebraska
0
85NA
Nevada
0
535NA
New Hampshire
0
151NA
New Mexico
0
191NA
North Carolina
0
836NA
Oregon
0
414NA
Rhode Island
0165NA
South Dakota
0
58NA
US Virgin Islands019NA
Wyoming
0
70NA