We’re not stupid, are we? I mean, it’s not a secret that we’ve been slow to test people for the coronavirus. And everyone knows by now that you can’t get tested unless they think you do have it. So, if you think the number cases being reported is the actual number of cases out there, you better read this. The number of cases that we see on the CDC website and hear about on the news, isn’t the number of people that have the virus. Not by a long shot. In fact, you’ll be shocked to learn how far off it is.
You probably already know that a person can have the virus for weeks before getting symptoms. That means it gets spread to other people before someone even knows they have it. Before they seek treatment and before they get tested. In other words, the number of confirmed cases that are being reported can’t be accurate.
So how do we really know how many cases are out there? Fortunately, a Stanford scientist, Thomas Pueyo, MSc., MBA, created a statistical model that can calculate the number of true cases based on the number of new deaths on a particular day. With that said, the calculation only works if there were new deaths. So, if your State didn’t have any deaths today, well, that’s great news! Check back when you do.
So, here it is. A Table of estimated True Cases based on the number of new deaths reported on March 27, 2020. Just type the name of your State into the search box (or use the “back” and “next” buttons at the bottom) and you’ll see the number of true cases in your State. Cover your eyes and peek through your fingers when you compare that number to the number being reported. You might want to be sitting down.
True Cases (Based on Number of Deaths
|State||New Deaths||Total Reported Cases||True Cases Based on Number of Deaths|
|District of Columbia||0||267||NA|
|New Mexico||0 ||191||NA|
|South Dakota||0 ||58||NA|
|US Virgin Islands||0||19||NA|